Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Outlook for U.S. New Nuclear Build

Current industry analysis points to a reduction in initial new nuclear build, but plans are moving forward.  There is a World wide debate on the future of nuclear energy.  It looks as if most, including the U.S., continue to see nuclear as one of the few options for reliable, low emission, baseload energy generation.  The low cost of natural gas is currently one of the major drivers for the selection of energy production methods as exemplified by the many local small turbine peaker power projects.

See the excerpt below from Dan Yurman's recent blog entry:

What the future looks like for the U.S.
It is very clear that by the end of this decade six reactors will be completed in the U.S. They include two Westinghouse AP1000 units at Southern's Vogtle site in Georgia and two more at Scana's V.C. Summer Station in South Carolina. TVA will complete the Watts Bar plant in Tennessee by 2013 and can be expected to be well on its way to finishing Bellefonte in Alabama
Looking out a bit further, the Calvert Cliffs site in Maryland is likely to get back on track with a new investor and break ground perhaps as early as 2014. Right now the project is stalled because Electricite de France, as a foreign entity, cannot own more than 50% of a U.S. reactor project. As new management takes over at Exelon, it may decide that being the U.S. part of the consortium to build a 1,600 MW Areva EPR is a good deal. 

Will SMRs’ rule in the next decade?
In the 2020-2030 time frame new small modular reactor designs will enter the market. Most likely, those that are based on conventional light water reactor technology have the best chance of getting NRC design certification and licenses.
For NuScale and B&W, a price point of $4,000/Kw will open up the potential for customers among utilities that would not contemplate 1,000 MW units. You aren’t betting the company at $600 million instead of $6 billion. Plus, revenue from the first unit pays for the next, and so on, providing a new business model for medium size utilities to get in the nuclear game.
NuScale, which is developing a 45 MW design, may seek early market share and success in developing nations such as India before attempting a run at U.S. customers.
Babcock & Wilcox is working with TVA to develop a feasible licensing path forward for its 125 MW design at the utility's Clinch River site.

Friday, May 6, 2011

Renewable Energy Projects Show Strength in 2011

2011 and 2012 are looking to be good years for renewable energy.  Proposed installation and current construction numbers are very encouraging.  Federal loan guarantees have picked up momentum as described in a previous post: http://powertrends.blogspot.com/2011/05/recent-renewable-federal-loan.html 

According to the numbers shown by the SEIA – Solar Energy Industries Association there is a considerable effort afoot.
 
Type
Operating
Under construction
Under Development
Total
Concentrating Solar
508 MW
679 MW
8,307 MW
9,494 MW
Photovoltaic
296 MW
274 MW
16,688 MW
17,258 MW


According to the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA), the U.S. wind power industry installed 1,100 megawatts (MW) of new capacity in the first quarter of 2011 and entered the second quarter with another 5,600 MW under construction. The under-construction figure is nearly twice the megawatts that the industry reported at the same time in both 2009 and 2010. The total U.S. wind fleet capacity now stands at 41,400 MW, which is enough to supply 10 million homes.

The first quarter's new capacity came online in 12 different states, with some seeing double-digit growth. The states adding the most capacity were Minnesota (293 MW), Washington (252 MW), and Illinois (240 MW). AWEA reported that one third of the 5,600 MW currently under construction is located in California, Oregon, and Washington. See the AWEA press release.


Net Generation Comparison Jan 2011 vs. Jan 2010 (source):
Items
Total (All Sectors)




Jan-11
Jan-10
% Change


Net Generation (thousand megawatthours)





171,246
173,505
-1.3


1,840
3,171
-42


Petroleum Coke
1,448
1,130
28.1


74,070
73,558
0.7


923
909
1.5


Nuclear
72,743
72,569
0.2


Hydroelectric Conventional
25,746
22,156
16.2


Other Renewables
14,966
13,077
14.4


Wood and Wood-Derived Fuels[5]
3,167
3,248
-2.5


1,432
1,482
-3.4


Geothermal
1,435
1,373
4.6


43
10
343.2


Wind
8,888
6,965
27.6


Hydroelectric Pumped Storage
-426
-537
20.6


824
863
-4.6


All Energy Sources
363,378
360,401
0.8
















Year to Year Net Generation-Renewables (source):
(Thousand Megawatthours)





Period
Wind
Solar Thermal
Wood and Wood-Derived Fuels[1]
Geothermal
Other
Total
and Photovoltaic
(Other Renewables)
1997
3,288
511
36,948
14,726
21,709
77,183
1998
3,026
502
36,338
14,774
22,448
77,088
1999
4,488
495
37,041
14,827
22,572
79,423
2000
5,593
493
37,595
14,093
23,131
80,906
2001
6,737
543
35,200
13,741
14,548
70,769
2002
10,354
555
38,665
14,491
15,044
79,109
2003
11,187
534
37,529
14,424
15,812
79,487
2004
14,144
575
38,117
14,811
15,421
83,067
2005
17,811
550
38,856
14,692
15,420
87,329
2006
26,589
508
38,762
14,568
16,099
96,525
2007
34,450
612
39,014
14,637
16,525
105,238
2008
55,363
864
37,300
14,840
17,734
126,101
2009
73,886
891
36,050
15,009
18,443
144,279
2010
94,647
1,299
37,975
15,666
18,557
168,144
2011 through January
8,888
43
3,167
1,435
1,432
14,966

Extra Credit:  Using 2008 generation and installed capacity one can determine capacity factor for power generation sources in 2008.  Simple calculation with no assumptions just installed versus generated. (data source):
Wind  = 25%
Solar  = 18%
Nuclear  = 87%
Coal  = 67%
Natural Gas  = 22%